Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

May 16, 2026

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1310
(+45)
Arnold Allen
Winner: Arnold Allen
Decision - Unanimous
Round 5 • 5:00

C-ELO Evolution

Arnold Allen+45
Melquizael Costa-39
1221
(-39)
Melquizael Costa

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +31Melquizael Costa: -31

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Total UFC Fights1510
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 2961 232
ELO Change+31-31
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What Happened

Arnold Allen's 5-fight experience advantage (15 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Arnold Allen for the expected result. Had Melquizael Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +19Melquizael Costa: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1591 092
ELO Change+19-19
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +47Melquizael Costa: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round55
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 4401 384
ELO Change+47-47
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What Happened

Arnold Allen earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +56Melquizael Costa: -56

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Significant Strikes Landed98100
Significant Strikes Attempted152254
Total Strikes Landed156118
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 4401 328
ELO Change+56-56
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What Happened

Arnold Allen controlled the striking exchanges with 156 vs 118 total strikes, 64.5% vs 39.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Arnold Allen capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +98Melquizael Costa: -98

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Takedowns Landed70
Takedowns Attempted74
Ground Control Time9:281:45
Ground Strikes Landed193
Ground ELO1 3611 144
ELO Change+98-98
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What Happened

Arnold Allen dominated Melquizael Costa on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 9:28 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +71Melquizael Costa: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Days Since Last Fight11284
Activity ELO1 2971 323
ELO Change+71-28
💡

What Happened

Arnold Allen demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Arnold Allen capitalized on this activity level, while Melquizael Costa's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +15Melquizael Costa: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 3301 173
ELO Change+15-14
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What Happened

Arnold Allen started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melquizael Costa is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Arnold Allen: +20Melquizael Costa: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricArnold AllenMelquizael Costa
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1531 091
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.