June 9, 2017
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
John Moraga's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Moraga for the expected result. Had Ashkan Mokhtarian pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
John Moraga earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 56 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 942 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
John Moraga dominated the striking exchanges with 73 vs 15 total strikes, 56 vs 12 significant strikes, 64.4% vs 52.2% accuracy. John Moraga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:09 | 7:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 36 |
| Ground ELO | 920 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
John Moraga dominated Ashkan Mokhtarian on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 7:47 of control time, 36 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 146 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +32 |
John Moraga demonstrated solid activity levels with 146 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Moraga capitalized on this activity level, while Ashkan Mokhtarian's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
John Moraga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ashkan Mokhtarian is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ashkan Mokhtarian | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.