December 5, 2014
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Raquel Pennington's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raquel Pennington for the expected result. Had Ashlee Evans-Smith pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 962 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +63 |
Raquel Pennington earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Ashlee Evans-Smith controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 5), superior accuracy (68.8% vs 50.0%). However, since Ashlee Evans-Smith lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Raquel Pennington's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:09 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 945 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Raquel Pennington controlled Ashlee Evans-Smith on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:23 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Raquel Pennington demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Raquel Pennington capitalized on this activity level, while Ashlee Evans-Smith's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Raquel Pennington started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ashlee Evans-Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ashlee Evans-Smith | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

