March 1, 2025
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 149 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Manel Kape's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Manel Kape for the expected result. Had Asu Almabayev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:16 | 2:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 165 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +66 |
Manel Kape gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Manel Kape controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 40 total strikes, 61 vs 40 significant strikes. Manel Kape capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 209 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Manel Kape controlled Asu Almabayev on the ground with 0:29 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 127 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +64 |
Manel Kape demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Manel Kape capitalized on this activity level, while Asu Almabayev's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 082 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Manel Kape extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Asu Almabayev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Manel Kape |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.