October 19, 2024
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 187 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -30 |
Asu Almabayev overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matheus Nicolau.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 198 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Asu Almabayev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 180 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Asu Almabayev controlled the striking exchanges with 22 vs 16 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Asu Almabayev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:17 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 289 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Asu Almabayev landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 148 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -22 |
Asu Almabayev demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Asu Almabayev capitalized on this activity level, while Matheus Nicolau's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -22 |
Asu Almabayev extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matheus Nicolau is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Asu Almabayev | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 082 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.