February 24, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 125 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Augusto Sakai's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Augusto Sakai for the expected result. Had Don'Tale Mayes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 189 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Augusto Sakai earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 62 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Augusto Sakai controlled the striking exchanges with 107 vs 77 total strikes, 53 vs 29 significant strikes, 55.8% vs 46.8% accuracy. Augusto Sakai capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:51 | 2:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 033 | 889 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Augusto Sakai controlled Don'Tale Mayes on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 8:51 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 100 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Augusto Sakai demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Augusto Sakai capitalized on this activity level, while Don'Tale Mayes's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Augusto Sakai started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Don'Tale Mayes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.