December 10, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 136 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tai Tuivasa's 3-fight experience advantage (10 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tai Tuivasa for the expected result. Had Augusto Sakai pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:26 | 0:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 193 | 1 413 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +53 |
Tai Tuivasa gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 065 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Tai Tuivasa controlled the striking exchanges with 34 vs 21 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tai Tuivasa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:33 | 1:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 014 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Tai Tuivasa did not secure a significant ground advantage against Augusto Sakai on the ground with 1:58 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 097 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +29 |
Tai Tuivasa demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tai Tuivasa capitalized on this activity level, while Augusto Sakai's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +27 |
Tai Tuivasa extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Augusto Sakai is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Augusto Sakai | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.