Austen Lane vs Justin Tafa

September 8, 2023

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

968
(-32)
Austen Lane
Winner: Justin Tafa
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 1:22

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Austen Lane-32
Justin Tafa+40
1088
(+40)
Justin Tafa

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -29Justin Tafa: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Total UFC Fights28
Experience Gap-66
Experience ELO9711 059
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Justin Tafa's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Tafa for the expected result. Had Austen Lane pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -21Justin Tafa: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9791 024
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -22Justin Tafa: +52

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:221:22
Win Type ELO9781 236
ELO Change-22+52
💡

What Happened

Justin Tafa earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -76Justin Tafa: +76

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Significant Strikes Landed711
Significant Strikes Attempted1414
Total Strikes Landed711
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9241 152
ELO Change-76+76
💡

What Happened

Justin Tafa controlled the striking exchanges with 78.6% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Tafa capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -46Justin Tafa: +46

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:05
Ground Strikes Landed05
Ground ELO9541 089
ELO Change-46+46
💡

What Happened

Justin Tafa landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -19Justin Tafa: +58

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Days Since Last Fight7777
Activity ELO9811 086
ELO Change-19+58
💡

What Happened

Justin Tafa demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Justin Tafa capitalized on this activity level, while Austen Lane's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -20Justin Tafa: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9801 035
ELO Change-20+22
💡

What Happened

Justin Tafa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austen Lane is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Austen Lane: -21Justin Tafa: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAusten LaneJustin Tafa
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9791 024
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.