September 8, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Justin Tafa's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Tafa for the expected result. Had Austen Lane pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:22 | 1:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 978 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +52 |
Justin Tafa earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 924 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Justin Tafa controlled the striking exchanges with 78.6% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Tafa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Justin Tafa landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +58 |
Justin Tafa demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Justin Tafa capitalized on this activity level, while Austen Lane's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Justin Tafa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austen Lane is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Austen Lane | Justin Tafa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

