April 16, 2021
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Austin Hubbard's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Austin Hubbard for the expected result. Had Dakota Bush pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 022 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Austin Hubbard earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 126 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Austin Hubbard dominated the striking exchanges with 126 vs 54 total strikes, 67 vs 41 significant strikes, 58.3% vs 39.4% accuracy. Austin Hubbard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:42 | 1:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 018 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Austin Hubbard controlled Dakota Bush on the ground with 1 takedown, 6:42 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Austin Hubbard demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Austin Hubbard capitalized on this activity level, while Dakota Bush's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Austin Hubbard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dakota Bush is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Dakota Bush |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.