March 29, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 954 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +39 |
MarQuel Mederos overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Austin Hubbard.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 950 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with MarQuel Mederos receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 961 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
MarQuel Mederos controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 26 significant strikes, 64.7% vs 40.0% accuracy. MarQuel Mederos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:34 | 1:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 938 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
MarQuel Mederos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Austin Hubbard on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:33 of control time, 8 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 421 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
MarQuel Mederos demonstrated extended layoff with 421 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, MarQuel Mederos capitalized on this activity level, while Austin Hubbard's 175-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
MarQuel Mederos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austin Hubbard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | MarQuel Mederos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 950 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.