April 26, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Austin Hubbard's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Austin Hubbard for the expected result. Had Michal Figlak pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 915 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Austin Hubbard earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 206 | 210 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 99 | 100 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 008 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Michal Figlak lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Austin Hubbard's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 1:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 872 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Austin Hubbard edged out Michal Figlak on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 0:48 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | 602 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Austin Hubbard demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Austin Hubbard capitalized on this activity level, while Michal Figlak's 602-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Austin Hubbard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michal Figlak is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Michal Figlak |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 988 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.