August 20, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 008 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Vinc Pichel's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vinc Pichel for the expected result. Had Austin Hubbard pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 991 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 004 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Vinc Pichel earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 160 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 96 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Vinc Pichel controlled the striking exchanges with 96 vs 66 total strikes, 71 vs 56 significant strikes. Vinc Pichel capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:14 | 2:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 002 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Vinc Pichel slightly outworked Austin Hubbard on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:29 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +16 |
Vinc Pichel demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Vinc Pichel capitalized on this activity level, while Austin Hubbard's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 999 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Vinc Pichel extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austin Hubbard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Austin Hubbard | Vinc Pichel |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 991 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

