May 10, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 27 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 019 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (27 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 096 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 174 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Clay Guida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 177 | 208 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 113 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 023 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Clay Guida controlled the striking exchanges with 113 vs 74 total strikes, 80 vs 64 significant strikes. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 4:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Clay Guida edged out BJ Penn on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:02 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 157 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Clay Guida demonstrated standard activity with 336 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while BJ Penn's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Clay Guida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. BJ Penn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 117 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.