December 11, 2009
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 240 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
BJ Penn's 3-fight experience advantage (16 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding BJ Penn for the expected result. Had Diego Sanchez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 329 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -13 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. BJ Penn captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 2:37 | 2:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 514 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
BJ Penn gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 131 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 149 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 520 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
BJ Penn dominated the striking exchanges with 149 vs 8 total strikes, 70 vs 8 significant strikes, 53.4% vs 7.4% accuracy. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 27 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:30 | 6:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 580 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
BJ Penn controlled Diego Sanchez on the ground with 1:30 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 318 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -23 |
BJ Penn demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Diego Sanchez's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 203 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -23 |
BJ Penn extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diego Sanchez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Diego Sanchez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 389 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.