March 3, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 116 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +35 |
Georges St-Pierre overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran BJ Penn.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 149 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 377 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Georges St-Pierre receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 135 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 101 | 135 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 331 | 1 408 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Georges St-Pierre controlled the striking exchanges with 135 vs 101 total strikes, 59 vs 37 significant strikes. Georges St-Pierre capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 7:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 268 | 1 453 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Georges St-Pierre dominated BJ Penn on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 7:25 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 763 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +60 |
Georges St-Pierre demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Georges St-Pierre capitalized on this activity level, while BJ Penn's 763-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 099 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +31 |
Georges St-Pierre extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. BJ Penn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Georges St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.