June 22, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 124 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
BJ Penn's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding BJ Penn for the expected result. Had Jens Pulver pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 161 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:12 | 3:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 395 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -29 |
BJ Penn earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jens Pulver was submitted.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 300 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
BJ Penn controlled the striking exchanges with 60 vs 18 total strikes, 23 vs 6 significant strikes, 74.2% vs 33.3% accuracy. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:56 | 1:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 342 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +101 | -101 |
BJ Penn dominated Jens Pulver on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:56 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 195 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
BJ Penn demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Jens Pulver's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
BJ Penn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jens Pulver is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Jens Pulver |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.