January 18, 2008
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 155 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
BJ Penn's 5-fight experience advantage (12 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding BJ Penn for the expected result. Had Joe Stevenson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 210 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -16 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. BJ Penn captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:02 | 4:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 434 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -25 |
BJ Penn earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Joe Stevenson was submitted.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 69 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 359 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
BJ Penn dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 33 total strikes, 41 vs 17 significant strikes, 59.4% vs 47.2% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 407 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
BJ Penn dominated Joe Stevenson on the ground with 6:33 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 220 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
BJ Penn demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Stevenson's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 139 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
BJ Penn extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Stevenson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | Yes | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 398 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +313 | -21 |
HISTORIC DOUBLE CHAMPION ACHIEVEMENT! BJ Penn etched his name into MMA legend by capturing the Lightweight title while already having held another belt. This ultra-rare multi-division champion status triggered a massive multiplier, delivering a colossal 313-point bonus - one of the highest individual rewards in the entire algorithm!
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.