August 7, 2009
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 209 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
BJ Penn's 3-fight experience advantage (15 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding BJ Penn for the expected result. Had Kenny Florian pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 291 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -15 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. BJ Penn captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 3:54 | 3:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 497 | 1 381 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -40 |
BJ Penn earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 3:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kenny Florian was submitted.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 94 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 151 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 436 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
BJ Penn dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 90 total strikes, 57 vs 19 significant strikes, 60.6% vs 32.8% accuracy. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:11 | 5:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 555 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | +137 | -137 |
BJ Penn dominated Kenny Florian on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:11 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 271 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -25 |
BJ Penn demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Kenny Florian's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 176 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -25 |
BJ Penn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kenny Florian is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 380 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.