January 30, 2004
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 147 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -37 |
BJ Penn overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Hughes.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 175 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -32 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. BJ Penn captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:39 | 4:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 391 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -40 |
BJ Penn earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 361 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
BJ Penn edged the striking exchanges with 33 vs 10 total strikes, 17 vs 4 significant strikes, 73.9% vs 50.0% accuracy. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:10 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 360 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | +150 | -150 |
BJ Penn dominated Matt Hughes on the ground with 4:10 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 337 | 71 |
| Activity ELO | 1 211 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
BJ Penn demonstrated standard activity with 337 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Hughes's 71-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 121 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
BJ Penn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Hughes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.