September 22, 2006
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Matt Hughes's 6-fight experience advantage (16 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had BJ Penn pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 138 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +32 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Matt Hughes captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:53 | 3:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 350 | 1 560 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +54 |
Matt Hughes gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 283 | 1 488 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Matt Hughes controlled the striking exchanges with 77 vs 49 total strikes, 35 vs 17 significant strikes. Matt Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:58 | 6:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 241 | 1 513 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matt Hughes controlled BJ Penn on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 6:59 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 173 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +35 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while BJ Penn's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 088 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +27 |
Matt Hughes continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. BJ Penn's now at 0.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.