November 19, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 226 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -36 |
BJ Penn overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (19 vs 24 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Hughes.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 293 | 1 279 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:21 | 0:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 538 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | +145 | -50 |
BJ Penn secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:21 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 496 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
BJ Penn controlled the striking exchanges with 77.8% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 423 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 1 339 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -25 |
BJ Penn demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Hughes's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 185 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
BJ Penn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Hughes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 334 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.