October 28, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 186 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +77 |
Nick Diaz overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran BJ Penn.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 254 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 461 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Nick Diaz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 178 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 350 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 257 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 424 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Nick Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 257 vs 107 total strikes, 178 vs 88 significant strikes. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 3:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 399 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Nick Diaz did not secure a significant ground advantage against BJ Penn on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:23 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 1 806 |
| Activity ELO | 1 309 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +29 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated extended layoff with 1806 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while BJ Penn's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 164 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +38 |
Nick Diaz extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. BJ Penn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 291 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.