May 9, 2002
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 081 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
BJ Penn's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding BJ Penn for the expected result. Had Paul Creighton pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:23 | 3:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 313 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
BJ Penn gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 298 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
BJ Penn dominated the striking exchanges with 91 vs 8 total strikes, 39 vs 6 significant strikes. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:28 | 1:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 156 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
BJ Penn controlled Paul Creighton on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:28 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 166 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -13 |
BJ Penn demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Creighton's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
BJ Penn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Creighton is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Paul Creighton |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

