December 7, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 149 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +76 |
Rory MacDonald overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran BJ Penn.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 223 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 398 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Rory MacDonald earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 116 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 203 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 125 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 341 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Rory MacDonald dominated the striking exchanges with 125 vs 53 total strikes, 116 vs 24 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 27.0% accuracy. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:56 | 2:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 314 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Rory MacDonald controlled BJ Penn on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 407 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 1 278 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +39 |
Rory MacDonald demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while BJ Penn's 407-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 138 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +36 |
Rory MacDonald extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. BJ Penn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 258 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.