May 23, 2008
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 186 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
BJ Penn's 4-fight experience advantage (13 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding BJ Penn for the expected result. Had Sean Sherk pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 265 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -18 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. BJ Penn captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 472 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -19 |
BJ Penn gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 122 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 175 | 162 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 130 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 438 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
BJ Penn dominated the striking exchanges with 130 vs 52 total strikes, 122 vs 46 significant strikes, 69.7% vs 28.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. BJ Penn capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 455 | 1 329 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 322 |
| Activity ELO | 1 252 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
BJ Penn demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, BJ Penn capitalized on this activity level, while Sean Sherk's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 164 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
BJ Penn extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sean Sherk is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | BJ Penn | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 404 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.