April 16, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 000 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Gerald Meerschaert's 7-fight experience advantage (13 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gerald Meerschaert for the expected result. Had Bartosz Fabinski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:00 | 2:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 017 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +55 |
Gerald Meerschaert earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 968 | 939 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Gerald Meerschaert slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 80.0% vs 46.2% accuracy. Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 1:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 059 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Gerald Meerschaert edged out Bartosz Fabinski on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:26 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 012 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Gerald Meerschaert demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this activity level, while Bartosz Fabinski's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Gerald Meerschaert started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bartosz Fabinski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.