November 16, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Michel Prazeres's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michel Prazeres for the expected result. Had Bartosz Fabinski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:02 | 1:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 094 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +57 |
Michel Prazeres earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 027 | 1 324 |
| ELO Change | -98 | +98 |
Michel Prazeres controlled the striking exchanges with 26 vs 1 total strikes, 18 vs 1 significant strikes, 78.3% vs 20.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Michel Prazeres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 180 | 1 469 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Michel Prazeres dominated Bartosz Fabinski on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:46 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 053 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +13 |
Michel Prazeres demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michel Prazeres capitalized on this activity level, while Bartosz Fabinski's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 8 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 060 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +44 |
Michel Prazeres continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Bartosz Fabinski's now at 0.
| Metric | Bartosz Fabinski | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.