May 31, 2018
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Belal Muhammad's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Belal Muhammad for the expected result. Had Chance Rencountre pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 190 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Belal Muhammad earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 128 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Belal Muhammad dominated the striking exchanges with 88 vs 16 total strikes, 70 vs 16 significant strikes, 53.8% vs 13.0% accuracy. Belal Muhammad capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 223 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Belal Muhammad controlled Chance Rencountre on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:03 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 195 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 204 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -10 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated standard activity with 195 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Chance Rencountre's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 098 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -17 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chance Rencountre is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Chance Rencountre |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.