April 12, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 151 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Belal Muhammad's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Belal Muhammad for the expected result. Had Curtis Millender pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 190 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Belal Muhammad earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 126 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 092 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Belal Muhammad dominated the striking exchanges with 126 vs 50 total strikes. Belal Muhammad capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:16 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 201 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Belal Muhammad controlled Curtis Millender on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 8:16 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 35 |
| Activity ELO | 1 224 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -17 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Curtis Millender's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Belal Muhammad started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Curtis Millender is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Curtis Millender |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.