February 12, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 225 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Belal Muhammad's 2-fight experience advantage (12 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Belal Muhammad for the expected result. Had Dhiego Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 120 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 307 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Belal Muhammad earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 129 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 264 | 203 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 136 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 174 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Belal Muhammad dominated the striking exchanges with 136 vs 70 total strikes, 129 vs 69 significant strikes, 48.9% vs 34.0% accuracy. Belal Muhammad capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:42 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 310 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Belal Muhammad edged out Dhiego Lima on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:42 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 498 |
| Activity ELO | 1 269 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -12 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Dhiego Lima's 498-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 159 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -14 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dhiego Lima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Dhiego Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 120 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.