January 18, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 113 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +50 |
Geoff Neal overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Belal Muhammad.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 140 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Geoff Neal earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 204 | 190 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 045 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Geoff Neal dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 63 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Geoff Neal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 148 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Geoff Neal landed 2 knockdowns followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 233 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +60 |
Geoff Neal demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Geoff Neal capitalized on this activity level, while Belal Muhammad's 233-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 074 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +32 |
Geoff Neal extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Belal Muhammad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Geoff Neal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.