October 21, 2022
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 399 | 1 272 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Belal Muhammad's 11-fight experience advantage (17 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Belal Muhammad for the expected result. Had Sean Brady pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 203 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:47 | 4:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 529 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -23 |
Belal Muhammad gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 209 | 118 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 396 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Belal Muhammad controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 58 total strikes, 80 vs 58 significant strikes, 38.3% vs 49.2% accuracy. Belal Muhammad capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 524 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 432 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -8 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Sean Brady's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 271 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -16 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sean Brady is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 202 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.