December 17, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 339 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -28 |
Belal Muhammad overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (15 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Stephen Thompson.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 164 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 419 | 1 426 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Belal Muhammad earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 171 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 315 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Belal Muhammad dominated the striking exchanges with 171 vs 51 total strikes, 58 vs 19 significant strikes. Belal Muhammad capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 11:57 | 0:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 55 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 438 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
Belal Muhammad dominated Stephen Thompson on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 11:57 of control time, 55 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 361 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Stephen Thompson's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 217 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stephen Thompson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 163 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.