September 6, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 179 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Belal Muhammad's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Belal Muhammad for the expected result. Had Takashi Sato pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:55 | 1:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 242 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -34 |
Belal Muhammad earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:55, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Takashi Sato was submitted.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 106 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 128 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Belal Muhammad controlled the striking exchanges with 78 vs 34 total strikes, 49 vs 29 significant strikes, 46.2% vs 32.6% accuracy. Belal Muhammad capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:31 | 0:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 281 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Belal Muhammad dominated Takashi Sato on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 245 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -10 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Takashi Sato's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Takashi Sato is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 087 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.