November 17, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -36 |
Belal Muhammad overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tim Means.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 053 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 167 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Belal Muhammad receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 91 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 221 | 234 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Tim Means lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Belal Muhammad's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 184 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 191 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -28 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Means's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -25 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tim Means is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.