November 11, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Vicente Luque's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vicente Luque for the expected result. Had Belal Muhammad pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:19 | 1:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 051 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +69 |
Vicente Luque earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:19, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Vicente Luque controlled the striking exchanges with 9 vs 3 significant strikes, 42.9% vs 30.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Vicente Luque capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 030 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 57 | 50 |
| Activity ELO | 1 034 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +91 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 50 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Belal Muhammad's 57-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Vicente Luque extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Belal Muhammad is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

