April 15, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 374 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -31 |
Belal Muhammad overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (16 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Vicente Luque.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 187 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 482 | 1 551 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Belal Muhammad earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 84 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 155 | 184 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 136 | 102 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 353 | 1 473 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Vicente Luque controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (102 vs 136 total strikes), significant strike advantage (84 vs 60). However, since Vicente Luque lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Belal Muhammad's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:29 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 504 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Belal Muhammad controlled Vicente Luque on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:29 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 422 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -24 |
Belal Muhammad demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Belal Muhammad capitalized on this activity level, while Vicente Luque's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 249 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -24 |
Belal Muhammad extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vicente Luque is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 186 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.