October 25, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 31 |
| Experience Gap | -28 | 28 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Demian Maia's 28-fight experience advantage (31 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Ben Askren pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:54 | 3:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 114 | 1 487 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +15 |
Demian Maia earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Ben Askren was submitted.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 127 | 122 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 102 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 020 | 1 407 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
Ben Askren controlled the striking through superior volume (102 vs 84 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (63 vs 69). However, since Ben Askren lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Demian Maia's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:54 | 1:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 079 | 1 547 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
Demian Maia edged out Ben Askren on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:30 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 030 | 1 426 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +10 |
Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Askren's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 015 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +10 |
Demian Maia extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Askren is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Askren | Demian Maia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.