July 12, 2016
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Louis Smolka's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Louis Smolka for the expected result. Had Ben Nguyen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:41 | 4:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 114 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +73 |
Louis Smolka gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 138 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 041 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -147 | +147 |
Louis Smolka dominated the striking exchanges with 138 vs 8 total strikes, 82 vs 4 significant strikes, 72.6% vs 50.0% accuracy. Louis Smolka capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:49 | 7:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 79 |
| Ground ELO | 1 031 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Louis Smolka dominated Ben Nguyen on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:03 of control time, 79 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 242 | 263 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Louis Smolka demonstrated standard activity with 263 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Louis Smolka capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Nguyen's 242-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +26 |
Louis Smolka extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Nguyen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Nguyen | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.