October 23, 2009
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Cain Velasquez's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cain Velasquez for the expected result. Had Ben Rothwell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:58 | 0:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 987 | 1 320 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +27 |
Cain Velasquez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 453 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Cain Velasquez dominated the striking exchanges with 84 vs 3 total strikes, 62 vs 3 significant strikes, 65.3% vs 14.3% accuracy. Cain Velasquez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 4:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 52 |
| Ground ELO | 968 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Cain Velasquez dominated Ben Rothwell on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 4:38 of control time, 52 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +24 |
Cain Velasquez demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cain Velasquez capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Rothwell's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +28 |
Cain Velasquez continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Ben Rothwell's now at 0.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.