January 18, 2013
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 013 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Gabriel Gonzaga's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriel Gonzaga for the expected result. Had Ben Rothwell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:01 | 1:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 113 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +54 |
Gabriel Gonzaga earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:01, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Ben Rothwell was submitted.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 058 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Gabriel Gonzaga slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 17 vs 12 significant strikes, 60.7% vs 44.4% accuracy. Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 2:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 009 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Gabriel Gonzaga dominated Ben Rothwell on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:18 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 014 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +15 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Rothwell's 274-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Gabriel Gonzaga extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Rothwell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

