January 29, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 190 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 088 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:48 | 3:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 483 | 1 381 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -43 |
Ben Rothwell earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Josh Barnett was submitted.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 303 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Ben Rothwell slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 38.5% vs 51.5% accuracy. Ben Rothwell capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 202 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Ben Rothwell edged out Josh Barnett on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 132 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -26 |
Ben Rothwell demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ben Rothwell capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Barnett's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -23 |
Ben Rothwell extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Barnett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.