April 9, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 166 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Junior Dos Santos's 5-fight experience advantage (15 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Junior Dos Santos for the expected result. Had Ben Rothwell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 074 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 443 | 1 543 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Junior Dos Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 77 | 157 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 212 | 247 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 157 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 273 | 1 424 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Junior Dos Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 157 vs 78 total strikes, 157 vs 77 significant strikes, 63.6% vs 36.3% accuracy. Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 184 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 71 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 118 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +34 |
Junior Dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Rothwell's 71-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 104 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +13 |
Junior Dos Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Rothwell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Rothwell | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.