December 13, 2019
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 916 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Matt Brown's 6-fight experience advantage (25 vs 19 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had Ben Saunders pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 973 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 101 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +29 |
Matt Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 833 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 12 significant strikes, 63.8% vs 52.2% accuracy. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 7:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 879 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Matt Brown controlled Ben Saunders on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:33 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 763 |
| Activity ELO | 1 090 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +9 |
Matt Brown demonstrated extended layoff with 763 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Saunders's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Matt Brown extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Saunders is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 971 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

