September 21, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +35 |
Sergio Moraes overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Ben Saunders.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 237 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +76 |
Sergio Moraes earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Ben Saunders was submitted.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 978 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Ben Saunders controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (55 vs 17 total strikes), superior accuracy (50.0% vs 66.7%). However, since Ben Saunders lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sergio Moraes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 8:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 994 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -95 | +95 |
Sergio Moraes dominated Ben Saunders on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 8:05 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 159 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Sergio Moraes demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sergio Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Saunders's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 065 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Sergio Moraes extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Saunders is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ben Saunders | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

