June 9, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 32 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 299 | 1 425 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Charles Oliveira's 10-fight experience advantage (32 vs 22 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Beneil Dariush pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 202 | 1 311 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:10 | 4:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 511 | 1 743 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +52 |
Charles Oliveira earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 380 | 1 581 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Charles Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 26 vs 12 significant strikes, 72.2% vs 42.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:44 | 0:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 505 | 1 558 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Charles Oliveira edged out Beneil Dariush on the ground with 0:31 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 456 | 1 525 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Beneil Dariush's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 384 | 1 531 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Charles Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Beneil Dariush is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Beneil Dariush | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 198 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.