November 4, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Mario Bautista's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mario Bautista for the expected result. Had Benito Lopez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:54 | 4:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 022 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +45 |
Mario Bautista earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 998 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Mario Bautista controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 17 total strikes, 44 vs 17 significant strikes. Mario Bautista capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 921 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Mario Bautista dominated Benito Lopez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:36 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 212 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Mario Bautista demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mario Bautista capitalized on this activity level, while Benito Lopez's 1212-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Mario Bautista extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Benito Lopez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.