March 8, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 30 |
| Experience Gap | -23 | 23 |
| Experience ELO | 1 155 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Dustin Poirier's 23-fight experience advantage (30 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Benoit Saint Denis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:32 | 2:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 656 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +39 |
Dustin Poirier gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 34 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 69 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 315 | 1 535 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Benoit Saint Denis controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (69 vs 30 total strikes), significant strike advantage (50 vs 28), superior accuracy (67.6% vs 82.4%). However, since Benoit Saint Denis lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Dustin Poirier's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:53 | 0:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 293 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Dustin Poirier landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 204 | 1 423 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +13 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Benoit Saint Denis's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 120 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +12 |
Dustin Poirier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Benoit Saint Denis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

