May 10, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Benoit Saint Denis's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Benoit Saint Denis for the expected result. Had Kyle Prepolec pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:35 | 2:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 378 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -6 |
Benoit Saint Denis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:35, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kyle Prepolec was submitted.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 285 | 918 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Benoit Saint Denis dominated the striking exchanges with 77 vs 14 total strikes, 54 vs 12 significant strikes, 77.1% vs 44.4% accuracy. Benoit Saint Denis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:32 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 279 | 838 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Benoit Saint Denis dominated Kyle Prepolec on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:32 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 2 066 |
| Activity ELO | 1 197 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -9 |
Benoit Saint Denis demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Benoit Saint Denis capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Prepolec's 2066-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -13 |
Benoit Saint Denis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Prepolec is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Kyle Prepolec |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

