September 28, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Renato Moicano's 9-fight experience advantage (17 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Moicano for the expected result. Had Benoit Saint Denis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 057 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 368 | 1 494 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Renato Moicano gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 269 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Renato Moicano controlled the striking exchanges with 72 vs 35 total strikes, 50 vs 25 significant strikes, 69.4% vs 41.7% accuracy. Renato Moicano capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 4:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 33 |
| Ground ELO | 1 244 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Renato Moicano controlled Benoit Saint Denis on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:53 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 186 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +31 |
Renato Moicano demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Renato Moicano capitalized on this activity level, while Benoit Saint Denis's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 102 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Renato Moicano extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Benoit Saint Denis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Benoit Saint Denis | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.